The Broad-ly Effect
Oct. 8th, 2008 03:44 pmThere's been some chat in the media about the Bradley Effect - the tendency of racist voters to lie to pollsters by claiming they'll vote for a black candidate, but then vote for a white candidate in the privacy of the voting booth.
I'm sure it exists, although I doubt it's as prevalent today as it was years ago.
But it occurs to me that there's another "effect" which may play a role in this election, one that as far as I know hasn't been named: the reluctance of sexists (both men and possible women) to vote for a woman.
It may sound crazy, but I can imagine that some unreconstructed good-ol'-boy rednecks who would normally vote Republican without a second thought (or a first, for that matter) might actually hesitate to vote for a ticket with a woman, even one in second place - particularly when it looks as if there's a pretty good chance that McCain could fall over dead before the end of his first term. He didn't look too good in the last debate!
I'd guess that the Broad-ly effect (as I'm calling it) is nowhere near as powerful as the Bradley Effect. But no one has ever studied it, I believe, so I just don't know.
I'm sure it exists, although I doubt it's as prevalent today as it was years ago.
But it occurs to me that there's another "effect" which may play a role in this election, one that as far as I know hasn't been named: the reluctance of sexists (both men and possible women) to vote for a woman.
It may sound crazy, but I can imagine that some unreconstructed good-ol'-boy rednecks who would normally vote Republican without a second thought (or a first, for that matter) might actually hesitate to vote for a ticket with a woman, even one in second place - particularly when it looks as if there's a pretty good chance that McCain could fall over dead before the end of his first term. He didn't look too good in the last debate!
I'd guess that the Broad-ly effect (as I'm calling it) is nowhere near as powerful as the Bradley Effect. But no one has ever studied it, I believe, so I just don't know.